Files
equitysearch/openspec/changes/stock-deep-evaluation/design.md
T
paulandClaude Opus 4.8 73e93e7cb4 Initial commit: OpenSpec setup and stock-deep-evaluation change
Set up OpenSpec spec-driven workflow and fully specify the first change,
stock-deep-evaluation: a Next.js/TS app for thorough single-stock
evaluation (valuation reasoning, macro factors, entry/exit points,
stop-loss) with a pluggable data layer and Claude analysis agent.

Includes proposal, design, specs (market-data, equity-evaluation,
analysis-agent, evaluation-app), tasks, and the DE gold-standard example.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-21 15:35:54 -04:00

6.2 KiB

Context

This is a greenfield Next.js + TypeScript web app that turns a single NYSE/Nasdaq ticker into a thorough, agent-written evaluation (valuation, macro, entry/exit, stop-loss). The target output shape is captured concretely in examples/de-reentry-2026-08-21.md and encoded as requirements in the four spec files. Constraints: bring-your-own API keys, free-tier market data by default, rate limits, and no persistence in v1. The design must keep data-provider and model-provider choices swappable so cost/quality decisions don't ripple into the evaluation or UI code.

Goals / Non-Goals

Goals:

  • One typed pipeline: resolve ticker → fetch data → compute evaluation → agent narrative.
  • Provider-agnostic boundaries: DataProvider and AnalysisAgent interfaces are the only seams consumers see.
  • Deterministic, testable evaluation math separated from the non-deterministic agent prose. The structured evaluation must stand on its own even with no agent key.
  • Secrets stay server-side only.

Non-Goals:

  • Persistence, accounts, watchlists, alerts, real-time streaming, backtesting.
  • Multi-ticker dashboards. (Deferred to later changes.)
  • Trade execution or brokerage integration.

Decisions

D1 — App structure: Next.js App Router, server-side data/agent calls

Route handlers (or server actions) under app/api/* run the pipeline server-side; the client is a thin report view. Rationale: keeps API keys off the browser (satisfies the app-config spec), and lets data + agent calls share one request. Alternative considered: client-side fetching — rejected because it would leak keys and duplicate rate-limit handling.

D2 — DataProvider interface with a free default

A single interface returns normalized models: CompanyProfile, Fundamentals (TTM + per-FY, optional segments), PriceHistory, TechnicalContext (computed), AnalystCoverage, Estimates. Default implementation targets a free tier (candidate: Financial Modeling Prep or Finnhub; final pick during tasks). Each model carries an asOf timestamp and delayed|realtime flag. Alternative: code directly against one vendor — rejected for lock-in and testability.

D3 — Technical indicators computed in-house, not taken from the provider

Moving averages (20/50/200), swing highs/lows, 52-week distance, volume multiple, and realized volatility are computed from OHLCV in a pure technicals module. Rationale: providers expose these inconsistently; in-house math is deterministic and unit-testable, and it is the same input the entry/exit/stop logic needs.

D4 — Evaluation engine is pure and provider-free

evaluate(inputs) → Evaluation is a pure function over normalized data. It emits a typed Evaluation object (one field per spec section) with explicit unavailable markers — never fabricated or zero-filled values. All entry/exit/ stop levels, implied multiples at each level, and valuation reasoning are computed here. Rationale: the spec requires the structured object to be consumable without the agent, and pure functions make the many numeric requirements testable.

D5 — AnalysisAgent interface; Claude default via @anthropic-ai/sdk

The agent takes the Evaluation object and returns narrative sections. Default impl calls a current Claude model, instructed to use ONLY the supplied figures, preserve any flagged caveats/discrepancies, and include the disclaimer. Structured output (tool/JSON schema) is preferred so the UI can render narrative per section. Alternative: free-text prompt with the raw data — rejected because grounding and per-section rendering are weaker. When no key is set, the pipeline returns the Evaluation with narrative: unavailable.

D6 — Typed results end-to-end; errors are values

Data, evaluation, and agent layers return typed results/errors (not thrown exceptions across boundaries). A data failure, rate-limit, or agent failure each degrade to a partial result the UI can render. Rationale: the specs require honest partial states and readable errors.

D7 — Caching and rate limiting at the provider boundary

An in-memory (v1) cache keyed by ticker+dataset with short TTLs sits inside the provider layer, with retry/backoff for transient/rate-limit errors. Rationale: free tiers are tightly limited; caching one evaluation's repeated reads avoids burning quota. Persistence-backed cache is a later change.

Risks / Trade-offs

  • [Free-tier data is delayed/incomplete — segments, estimates, or history may be missing] → Normalized models mark fields unavailable; evaluation and UI render honestly; provider is swappable for a paid tier without consumer changes.
  • [Agent may hallucinate numbers] → Agent receives only the structured object, is instructed to cite nothing outside it, and prose is rendered alongside the computed tables so drift is visible; consider a post-check that every cited figure exists in the input.
  • [Rate limits during development/demo] → Caching + backoff; a fixture/mock provider for tests and offline work.
  • [Numeric correctness of valuation/technical math] → Pure modules with unit tests seeded from the DE example's known figures.
  • [Not financial advice / liability] → Mandatory disclaimer enforced in both the evaluation object and the agent narrative.

Migration Plan

Greenfield — no data migration. Deployment: run locally (localhost:3000) with .env.local holding the market-data and Anthropic keys. Rollout is incremental by capability (see tasks): scaffold → data layer + technicals → evaluation engine → agent → UI. Rollback is trivial (no persisted state). Keys are provided via env; absence degrades gracefully rather than failing the build.

Open Questions

  • Which free market-data provider is the default (coverage of segments + forward estimates varies materially)? Resolve early in tasks by spiking 2 providers on DE.
  • Source of options-implied expected move and forward consensus EPS on free tiers — may need a secondary source or graceful omission.
  • Preferred charting library (Recharts vs. lightweight-charts) for overlaying entry/exit/stop markers on price history.
  • Whether to add an automated "every cited figure exists in inputs" guard on agent output in v1 or defer to a later hardening change.